Any week over .500 is a good week when picking all the NFL games, so I guess I can’t complain about my 7-6-1 against the spread mark from last week. But I sure don’t feel good about it. As we head towards Thanksgiving, I’d like to think I have a good grasp of this NFL season, but some weeks make you think that you sure don’t.
The 7-6-1 upped my ATS season record to 75-69-2. I went 9-5 straight up to raise my record to 98-47-1. Not too bad.
What I didn’t like last week was going 2-4 with my Best Bets on the Pick Six Podcast. That’s my second losing week of the year, and it dropped my overall mark to 37-22-1, which is still pretty good but still leaves a bad taste in my mouth because of last week.
So let’s get back on track with a winning record in all three areas for Week 11.
The Cardinals beat the Seahawks in overtime a few weeks back when Russell Wilson turned it over three times. The Seattle defense has major issues, which is why I think Kyler Murray can win a high-scoring road game. The Arizona defense is a little better, and that’s the difference.
Pick: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31
This has to be considered the dog game of the day. Both teams have major issues now. The Bengals looked bad on offense last week, but Washington wasn’t good on defense. That changes here. Their front will get after Joe Burrow and cause a few turnovers that are the difference.
Pick: Washington 23, Bengals 17
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The Saints will have Jameis Winston at quarterback with Drew Brees out with broken ribs. He should be fine against a bad Atlanta defense. The Falcons have come alive on offense in recent weeks, and that should be the case in this one. Look for a lot of points and a close game won by the Saints and Winston.
Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 30
The Jaguars have played the Steelers tough in their history. That won’t be the case here. The Steelers are rolling and got the offense cranked up last week. The pass rush will be too much for Jake Luton on the other side of the ball. Steelers win big.
Pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 17
The Texans are basically done, while the Patriots have won two straight to get back on track and in playoff contention. The Patriots have dominated the Texans in this series and I think they will continue that here. New England will again control the ball on the ground to win a tough, physical game.
Pick: Patriots 24, Texans 20
The Eagles are playing a second straight road game and didn’t look good last week against the Giants. The Browns won a tight one in bad weather last week against the Texans by running the ball well. They will try and do that in this one, but I think the Eagles will be up to the challenge. Philadelphia’s offense will get back on track as well. The Eagles will win a close one.
Pick: Eagles 26, Browns 21
The Panthers could be without Teddy Bridgewater, which means P.J. Walker could start. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is also banged up, but he should play. Both defenses have had issues as of late that could mean a high-scoring game. This is a tough one to call because of the quarterback issues, but I will go with the Panthers to win it at home — even if it’s Walker at quarterback.
Pick: Panthers 33, Lions 28
The Ravens have offensive issues, but the best thing to fix that is this Tennessee defense. The Titans upset the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but this Titans team has major defensive issues. The Ravens had run-defense issues last week against the Patriots, which isn’t a good thing against Derrick Henry. But I think they get back on track in that area in this one. Ravens win it behind a good offensive showing.
Pick: Ravens 31, Titans 24
The Jets are coming off a bye looking for their first victory. They showed some life the last time out against the Patriots. Sam Darnold is out again, which means more Joe Flacco. The Chargers have played well at times but can’t seem to win games. That will change against the Jets. Justin Herbert will have a good day after struggling some last week against Miami.
Pick: Chargers 31, Jets 20
This is a long trip for a hot Miami team. The Broncos were bad last week, and might not have Drew Lock this week. The Miami defense has made strides, and the Dolphins beat Arizona the last time on the road. That defense will again be the difference here — no matter who plays quarterback. Dolphins take it.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Broncos 23
The Vikings have won three straight to get back into playoff contention. The Cowboys are coming off a bye, while the Vikings played Monday night. The Dallas defense has continued to be a problem and the offense is limited without Dak Prescott. The Vikings defense has played much better in the past three games, and they will play well here again. Minnesota will win a fourth straight game.
Pick: Vikings 23, Cowboys 14
The Colts will have 10 days to rest after a Thursday night game last week, while the Packers are coming off a lifeless showing against the Jaguars. Watching Aaron Rodgers against the Indianapolis defense will be the treat here. I think he has has a good day as the Packers win a tough road game.
Pick: Packers 27, Colts 21
The Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this season in a high-scoring game. The Chiefs seemed to have righted things since then, but the Las Vegas defense has made strides as well. The Raiders won’t win this time, but they will keep it close. Patrick Mahomes will continue his MVP push with a big game.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 27
This is another long trip for the Rams, which has been an early-season trend. The last trip east came three weeks ago when they were blown out by Miami. They won’t get blown out here with the defense keeping them in it. Aaron Donald will make Tom Brady uncomfortable. Tampa Bay wins, but it’s razor close.
Pick: Bucs 24, Rams 23